Did home prices actually fall, or is that just what the headlines say?

Home prices did decline starting in July 2022, but comparing them to the first half of 2022—when prices peaked unusually high—makes the drop look worse than it is. When you look at monthly data rather than year-over-year comparisons, you see that prices stabilized by August or September 2022 and have been rising again since early 2023, with three or more consecutive months of month-over-month appreciation.

Why aren't home prices crashing despite higher mortgage rates?

According to experts cited in the latest data, demand for homes continues to outpace supply—there simply aren't enough homes available for the number of people who want to buy them. This supply shortage keeps upward pressure on prices, preventing the kind of collapse some feared, even with today's higher mortgage rates.

Should I buy now if I've been waiting to see if prices would drop further?

The latest national data suggests the worst of the price decline is behind us and prices are appreciating again, which should bring relief if you've been hesitant. Owning a home typically becomes more valuable over time, and waiting may mean missing out on the current market opportunity.

Is this a good time to sell my home?

Yes—if you've been concerned about the market, the data now indicates that conditions are turning in sellers' favor. With prices appreciating nationally and demand still outpacing supply, partnering with a local real estate agent to list your home could be a smart move.

Home Prices Are Rebounding

By Anne-Britt OstlundJuly 19, 20234 min read

Buying a Home

If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. If we take a year-over-year view, home prices did drop some, but that’s because we’re comparing to a ‘unicorn’ year when prices peaked well beyond the norm.

To avoid an unfair comparison to that previous peak, we need to look at monthly data. And that tells a very different and much more positive story. While local home price trends still vary by market, here’s what the national data tells us.

The graphs below use recent monthly reports from three sources to show the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are appreciating nationally.

Looking at this monthly view, we can see the past year in the housing market can be divided into two parts. In the first half of 2022, home prices were going up, and fast. However, starting in July, prices began to go down (shown in red in the graphs above). By around August or September, the trend started to stabilize. But, looking at the most recent data for early 2023, these graphs also show that prices are going up again.

The fact that all three reports show prices have been going up for three or more straight months is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data indicates a national shift is happening – home prices are rising again.

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says this about home price trends:

“If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument.”

Experts believe one of the reasons prices didn’t crash like some expected is because there aren’t enough available homes for the number of people who want to buy them. Even with today’s mortgage rates, there are more people looking to buy than there are homes available for sale.

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains how more demand than supply keeps upward pressure on prices:

“History has shown that higher rates may take the steam out of rising prices, but it doesn’t cause them to collapse entirely. This is especially true in today’s housing market, where the demand for homes continues to outpace supply, keeping the pressure on house prices.”

Doug Duncan, Senior VP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, states home price growth is exceeding expectations thanks to that high demand:

“. . . housing prices continue to show stronger growth than what was previously expected . . . Housing’s performance is a testimony to the strength of demographic-related demand . . .”

Here’s How This Affects You

Buyers: If you’ve been holding off on buying because you were worried the value of your home would go down, knowing home prices have bounced back should bring you some relief. It also gives you the opportunity to own something that usually becomes more valuable as time goes on.
Sellers: If you’ve been waiting to sell your house because you were concerned about how changing home prices would affect its value, it might be a good idea to team up with a real estate agent to list your house. You don’t have to wait any longer because the latest data suggests things are turning in your favor.

Bottom Line

If you've put your moving plans on hold due to concerns about falling home prices, the latest data indicates that the worst is behind us, and home prices are appreciating nationally. This positive trend opens up opportunities for both buyers and sellers in the real estate market.

At Mountain Rose Realty, we understand the nuances of the Telluride Real Estate market. With our expert agent, Anne-Britt, specializing in the unique dynamics of Telluride Real Estate, we can provide you with valuable insights specific to your local area.

By partnering with a local real estate agent, you gain access to up-to-date information on home prices in your area. Real estate professionals, like those at Mountain Rose Realty, possess the knowledge and expertise to interpret market data and trends, ensuring you have a clear understanding of the current market conditions.

Whether you're a buyer looking to make an informed decision or a seller wanting to determine the optimal listing price, working with a local real estate agent is essential. They will provide you with accurate and timely information about home prices, helping you make sound financial decisions.

Our team at Mountain Rose Realty, led by Anne-Britt, is dedicated to helping you navigate the market, understand home price trends, and make informed decisions.

Don't let concerns about fluctuating home prices hold you back from pursuing your moving plans. Partner with Mountain Rose Realty and Anne-Britt, your trusted Telluride Real Estate specialist. With their guidance, you'll have a comprehensive understanding of the current home price landscape in your area, allowing you to confidently navigate the market and achieve your real estate goals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did home prices actually fall, or is that just what the headlines say?: Home prices did decline starting in July 2022, but comparing them to the first half of 2022—when prices peaked unusually high—makes the drop look worse than it is. When you look at monthly data rather than year-over-year comparisons, you see that prices stabilized by August or September 2022 and have been rising again since early 2023, with three or more consecutive months of month-over-month appreciation.
Why aren't home prices crashing despite higher mortgage rates?: According to experts cited in the latest data, demand for homes continues to outpace supply—there simply aren't enough homes available for the number of people who want to buy them. This supply shortage keeps upward pressure on prices, preventing the kind of collapse some feared, even with today's higher mortgage rates.
Should I buy now if I've been waiting to see if prices would drop further?: The latest national data suggests the worst of the price decline is behind us and prices are appreciating again, which should bring relief if you've been hesitant. Owning a home typically becomes more valuable over time, and waiting may mean missing out on the current market opportunity.
Is this a good time to sell my home?: Yes—if you've been concerned about the market, the data now indicates that conditions are turning in sellers' favor. With prices appreciating nationally and demand still outpacing supply, partnering with a local real estate agent to list your home could be a smart move.