Oops! Home Prices Didn’t Crash After All

During the fourth quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:

Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business:

“I expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.”

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics:

“Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.” 

Goldman Sachs: 

“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”

The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence

These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.

The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed

However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months. 

In a report just released, Goldman Sachs explained:

“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”

Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:

Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.

Bottom Line

The housing market is much stronger than many think. To get a true evaluation of your local market, reach out to a trusted real estate professional like Anne-Britt of Mountain Rose Realty.

The Telluride housing market is much stronger than many people realize, and a trusted real estate professional can help you take advantage of the current market conditions. Many buyers and sellers are surprised to find out just how strong the local industry is right now — with low-interest rates, rising prices, and increased demand for quality homes.

Anne-Britt of Mountain Rose Realty knows the Telluride real estate market inside and out. With years of experience in the area, she is an expert at finding buyers the perfect property that meets their budget and needs. From luxurious mansions to cozy condominiums, Anne-Britt has access to exclusive data points that can give her clients an edge during negotiations. She also offers guidance on important matters such as loan requirements or closing costs — essential details that any buyer should be aware of before committing to a purchase.

So if you're looking for an experienced real estate consultant in Telluride, contact Anne-Britt at Mountain Rose Realty today! By leveraging her expertise and insider knowledge of the local market, she will help you make smart decisions about your investments. And don't forget to check out their blog for up-to-date information on all of your real estate needs in beautiful Telluride!